Jmarps

Name: Jmarps
Joined On: Aug 17, 2005
Maintag: Marps
Age: 34
Occupation: Business Analyst
Location: Kittery, Maine
Currently: Offline
Last seen: 10/13/08

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06/20/07

OHIE 5 – So Far, So Good....

Well, CROX rebounded yesterday and was up 2.39% from Monday's close, closing at 45.39. I bought the exrtra shares at 44.50, so that gave me a flat 2% gain on my buy. If I can catch another percent and a half I may sell the shares and then wait for weakness again in either CROX or APPL. This is called "trading around a core position." What you do is buy some shares when the stock shows weakness and then sell those same shares when the stock goes up. All the while you leave your "Core Position" in the stock alone so that as the stock goes up you are catching those gains on the longer term.

Meanwhile, APPL gave back a few of the points it gained off of the enhanced battery life news.

Finalayy, some good news out of DELPHI...apparently they are very close to a deal with the UAW...that's very good news. Wish I owned more of this little guy right now...

So, unrealized gains as of today are:

CROX -- 12.13%

AAPL -- 7.28 %

DPHIQ -- 11.06 %

 


 

Post Script -- If a blogger writes in the woods and nobody reads it, is it actually a blog?


Quick update as of 11:58 AM....I got the bump I wanted in CROX.  The stock is up 3.5% as I write this and has been as high as 4%.  I put a limit order in earlier today at 46.70 that triggered giving me a 5% gain on the money I invested yesterday...nice little pop, left a little money on the table, but I left my crystal ball at home today.....now I just need weakness in CROX or APPL tomorrow....Man this stock is a beast.  There was no news pushing this run, just the fundamentals of a great company....

Posted by Jmarps @ 9:07 am EDT | Permalink | 2 Comments

06/19/07

OHIE 4 – Deicision Made for Me

Well if you were watching yesterday (and I'm sure all of my faithful readers were...all zero of you) you saw that APPL was up $4.59 (3.81%) driven by good iPhone battery news and CROX dropped by $1.25 (2.74%). Not sure what drove CROX down...profit taking hopefully. The CEO sold some more shares but that ahs been happening quite a bit lately without hurting the stock. Cramer recommended taking some profits on his Friday show so that could have spurred some selling.....

So, with the weakness in CROX and the liquidity buring a hole in my pocket, I bought some more shares on that weakness at $44.50....missed the low of the day by about an hour...oh well. Now i have almost equal money in each security.

Short update today...work is keeping me busy.

Unrealized Gains:

CROX -- +9.51%

AAPL -- +8.52 %

DPHIQ -- + 14.10%

BTW, if anyone has any questions, leave a comment or send me a PM. If I think the question would benefit the readers I may ask your permission to post the question wiht my answer in the blog. Thanks!

One little post-script...I heard the rumors yesterday morning that Terry Semel was was going to step down as CEO of Yahoo, but I dismissed them as rumors.  I came this close to buying Yahoo instead looking for a day trade on the Semel news....damn!  Probably the rtight decision though...never buy stocks based just on news, always look at the fundys as well (fundamentals).  And Yahoo is not what you would call fundamentally sound.  This will be interesting to watch from both a financial and technology perspective.  I'm not sure Yahoo can still compete in 'search' so they may have to remake themselves as an internet entity.  There are rumors flying about them acquiring MySpace from Newscorp and also Facebook outright....Cramer thinks they should merge with eBay.  Not sure if any of these sound like viable solutions to me.....anyojne else have any thoughts on Yahoo's future or what you think their future should be?  Do they have anything today that they could successfully leverage in the future?



Posted by Jmarps @ 8:32 am EDT | Permalink | 0 Comments

06/15/07

OHIE 3 – What to do?

So I have a conundrum….Currently I have more money invested in Apple then I do in Crocs. (Side Note, Crocs is supposed to split today so I will have the double the shares as of the open…pretty cool, never owned a split before.) I like to try and keep the money I have in the market split between my equities. However, I think Apple will get weak before Crocs. I just deposited more money into my brokerage account and now I have to figure out how to spend it….
 
The iPhone is due to launch on the 29th. I think there will be a big run-up directly before and directly after the release of the phone. The week after is the week of the 4th of July. Typically a pretty slow week. After a run-up, typically a stock falls back because of profit taking, especially a run-up not based on financials. There is a LOT of exuberance built into this release. We saw how the stock reacted over the last 5 days (down 4.29 %, nice move last week asshole, buying pre WWDC….dumbass) when it was announced that developers would not be getting developer kits for the iPhone, that they would need to develop on the web via Ajax and the like. I bet ½ the sellers don’t even know what that means! So, that tells me that there will be a big time profit taking post launch….so, should I sell going into the launch, or go long and dollar-cost average down the stock when it dips? I fully believe that this stock could go to 150 and could as high as 200. If we were to get a split….we could catch a double from here. The final piece of this puzzle is that if I take profits, I will have to pay capital gains….nothing saying that I won’t sell the rest of Apple before the year I over either, but it seems less likely.
 
The other option is to just let it sit with what I have in it and focus on Crocs….another stock that has had a run-up and will probably show some weakness post-split. That would allow me to buy some more Crocs and balance out the portfolio…..
 
If anyone has any thoughts or questions, I would love to hear from you…
 
As I write this, here are my unrealized gains:
 
CROX -- +16.32 %
AAPL -- +3.02 %
DPHIQ -- +21.04 %
 
PS – The rumors around Delphi (DPHIQ) is that a deal with the UAW (union) is imminent which would clear the way for Delphi to be bought by private or public equity, which would be sweet! Again, very small portion of my portfolio….


Posted by Jmarps @ 8:52 am EDT | Permalink | 2 Comments

06/12/07

OHIE 2 – Crocs up, Apple Down

First the bad news. The big announcement from Steve Jobs didn’t come yesterday so Apple fell off in the afternoon. Last Thursday I sold some Crocs to liquidate in order to buy more Apple on Friday in prep for yesterday’s announcement. I was really hoping we would hear something crazy about Leopard, like that it will run Windows Apps natively. We didn’t get that. All we got on that front is that Boot Camp is now embedded in the OS. What else did we get? Safari can now run on Windows….meh. Also, a bunch of upgrades to the OS that the guys from Engadget seemed to enjoy…I still don’t have my Mac lingo down, so I am not really sure what it all means. I am not worried. One bad day…if I had more cash I would have bought more on the pullback. So the stock closed down $4.30 from $126.00 (-3.45%) which leaves me with an overall gain on Apple of 4.27%.

Now the good news! Crocs got an analyst upgrade yesterday! That coupled with the split coming this week, sent the stock skyrocketing! The stock soared up and held, closing at $90.97 for a $4.41 gain (+5.09%). Which means, as of this morning I have an 18.91% gain on the stock! Gotta love those “ugly” rubber shoes! This stock is now up 273% this year! Wish I had gotten in earlier!


Posted by Jmarps @ 9:21 am EDT | Permalink | 3 Comments

06/09/07

Open Hand Investing Entry 1 -- Intro

Well, it's been a  long, long, time since I posted a blog entry.  I was woried that if I started writing that it would eat into the other things going on in my life, and it probably will.  But I have decided to get back to it because I think it is going to help me get my thoughts in order.  I am going to play my investments "open hand" and invite questions, criticism and commentary.

Recently, I have gotten into investing in the stock market.  My company issued bonuses this year (they have for the last 4 years actually, which is pretty cool). Ususally I take a little bit and buy something for myself or for the house and take the rest and put it towards paying down debt.  This year, my debt is down, so I decided to put the money to work.  Now keep in mind, this is not a large sum of money and my wife and I have retirement funds already in place, as well as education money for the tyke, so this is purely fun money.  My goal right now is to pay for travel expenses for the next family vacation...I think tha's a resonable goal....

So I took 2/3rds of the cash and opened a brokerage account.  The rest I put in a money market account earning 5.5%.  At this point I should insert a caveat....right around the same time bonuses were issued, I started watching "Mad Money" on CNBC.  For those not familiar with the show, an ex-hedge fund manager named Jim Cramer rants and raves about the stock market and tries to provide valuable stock tips.  The show is quite unorthodox when compared to just about any other financial show and can be quite entertaining even if you are not into stocks.  Keep in mind that people seem to either love or hate the guy, so know that going in.  It's on at 6:00 PM and 11:00 PM weekdays on CNBC.

So, now back to my investments....maybe it is better to tell you what I have leared so far....

  • Never take your whole position on a stock wth one purchase.  You are basically saying, "I am betting that this stick never goes down."  For most stocks, this is not true....wait, watch the stock and try to find good entry points.  Wait for some sort of bad news that hurts the market but not necesarrily (sp?) the stock or the segment....plenty of that this week, lots of great stocks "on sale."
  • Only buy stocks you are interested in...basically, buy what you know.  If you aready know the product/stock, then you probably already know the competition and the sector.  This makes evaluation so much easier.  Additionally, it's dfficult to get excited and do the dilligence on stock whose product is "boring" to you.  Trust me on this one.
  • Watch those commsions -- This is more imortant for me because I have such a small bankroll.  I am usng Tradeking.com which has very low commisions (4.95 a trade) but they still add up and eat into your earnings...plus, it's round trip so you are paying $4.95 to buy and $4.95 to sell.  Buy and sell 10 stocks and that's $100...that's almost half a Wii!
  • Paitience, paitience, paitience...yeah, wish I could practice what I preach...I tend to be an overly active trader (which contradicts my last rule about watching my commisions) and that can kill you...more to come on that sometime when I discuss my foray into Jones Soda....

So there are a lot more rules I have learned so far, but I want to leave some stuff for future entries....now for the good part, what do I own right now and why....


Apple, Inc -- AAPL -- Cramer's growth stock of the year, and boy was he right.  I made my first purchase at $103.50.  Since then I have bought twice more, including one purchase yesterday in anticiption of news for next week at their developer conference.  Lot of controversey on this one.  Cramer is recommending that we sell off everything but 1/4 of our holdngs prior to launch of the iPhone....I'm not so sure...I am going to manage this one closely with trailing stops over the next few weeks...sees to be tremendous amount of exuberance and that can raise expectations too high sometimes (again, see Jones Soda).  That being said, I think that Apple is really hitting it's stride right now.  They dominate the mp3 market with hardware and software and they have recently started to make serious inroads in the PC market...and that to me might be the real story here.  Whatever hapens it's been a lot of fun so far.  I don't own any Apple products, but I am familir with their markets and their main product, which to me is innovation of User Interface.  So far, I have an 8% gain overall on this one with a cost basis of 115.27/share.

Crocs, Inc -- CROX -- Another Cramer recommendation.  Growth stock, these are those "ugly" rubber shoes that were made somewhat famous by Mario Batali.  Sales have been skyrocketing as America seems to be approaching the tipping point for these shoes.  The company's financials are fantastic with incredibly high margins.  They are starting to diversify their offerings now.  Earlier this week they annunced a new high-end fashion women's line.  Most importantly, they are the most comforatble shoes you wll ever wear  If you are in the "ugly" camp, I urge you to just try a pair on sometime....I bought my third pair yesterday.  I am currently sitting on a 14.48% gain with Cost Basis of $78.18/share 

Delphi Corporation -- DPHIQ.PK -- Very speculative play on GM's spinoff bankrupt (yeah, I said bankrupt) auto parts company.  I don't have very much in this stock. The play here is that private equity is trying to negotiate a deal with Delphi, GM and the unions to bring the company out of bankruptcy.  If that happens(big IF) I could catch a double or a triple.  Of course, it could go to nothing as well and I would lose the whole investment.  Bought it at $2.14 and it's currently trading at $2.40, which translates into 16.27% gain after commisions.  Cross your fingers on this guy....

Well, getting late today.  I'll get back to you on the rest of the portfolio, past and present, (incuding my dabbling in Jones Soda and Activision ) my plans for future trades/equities, and any new developments.  If anyone has any quuestions or comments, fire away...

Current YTD return on investment actualized and not actualized is 1.97%



Posted by Jmarps @ 1:43 pm EDT | Permalink | 6 Comments

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