So I have a conundrum….Currently I have more money invested in Apple then I do in Crocs. (Side Note, Crocs is supposed to split today so I will have the double the shares as of the open…pretty cool, never owned a split before.) I like to try and keep the money I have in the market split between my equities. However, I think Apple will get weak before Crocs. I just deposited more money into my brokerage account and now I have to figure out how to spend it….

 

The iPhone is due to launch on the 29th. I think there will be a big run-up directly before and directly after the release of the phone. The week after is the week of the 4th of July. Typically a pretty slow week. After a run-up, typically a stock falls back because of profit taking, especially a run-up not based on financials. There is a LOT of exuberance built into this release. We saw how the stock reacted over the last 5 days (down 4.29 %, nice move last week asshole, buying pre WWDC….dumbass) when it was announced that developers would not be getting developer kits for the iPhone, that they would need to develop on the web via Ajax and the like. I bet ½ the sellers don’t even know what that means! So, that tells me that there will be a big time profit taking post launch….so, should I sell going into the launch, or go long and dollar-cost average down the stock when it dips? I fully believe that this stock could go to 150 and could as high as 200. If we were to get a split….we could catch a double from here. The final piece of this puzzle is that if I take profits, I will have to pay capital gains….nothing saying that I won’t sell the rest of Apple before the year I over either, but it seems less likely.

 

The other option is to just let it sit with what I have in it and focus on Crocs….another stock that has had a run-up and will probably show some weakness post-split. That would allow me to buy some more Crocs and balance out the portfolio…..

 

If anyone has any thoughts or questions, I would love to hear from you…

 

As I write this, here are my unrealized gains:

 

CROX -- +16.32 %

AAPL -- +3.02 %

DPHIQ -- +21.04 %

 

PS – The rumors around Delphi (DPHIQ) is that a deal with the UAW (union) is imminent which would clear the way for Delphi to be bought by private or public equity, which would be sweet! Again, very small portion of my portfolio….