Rare DB: Why it's getting harder for FPS games to break out

(from my gamefocus blog)

What’s it gonna take?

In Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Point”, he discusses how ideas and trends are like viruses. Basically, all trends or ideas start out small, slowly build; if the right factors are in place, enough people catch wind of the idea then it “tips”, and suddenly becomes the must have item, or idea. First Person Shooter (FPS) gaming is no exception to this rule, but it’s only going to get harder and harder for new games to break out, here’s why.

When the next big game is a great game to play, and there is press that says as much, there is one major factor working against the newcomer, and that is the king of the hill. In the world of FPS multi-player (MP), most people are already committed to a game; they have their one or two “go to” games that sit in their tray. They play it often with their buddies, may even be in a clan what play this game exclusively. As such, you have to not only convince the gamer to buy your game, but to take out the game that is already in their console. You are asking people to change a major part of their gaming life for your game. And as we all know, gamers are both insanely loyal, and yet insanely fickle.

It should be noted, that when I discuss the next big thing to come along, I will assume the game is worth playing, that the game itself is worth dethroning whatever is at first place. Obviously, if a game is technically flawed, or just not as good as what is out there, then regular market pressures take over, and your game won’t take off.

So how do you do it? How do you get a gamer to take out his or her copy of whatever it is they have been playing, and put in your game? Luckily I have the answer. The first few suggestions are pretty obvious.

First, you have to ensure that there is no bad “vibe” about your game before launch. I mean, this is from the “No, duh!” school of business. Gamers are wired and vocal. If they get wind that your game is not what they are looking for you will hear about it. Instead of starting off neutral, you are starting off behind the 8-ball. And that is not a good place to be. Secondly, you have to launch at the right time. There is a small window, between when the king of the hill is getting a little stale, and when it gains it’s nostalgia factor. It is in that window when you want to release your next big thing. Again, this is not surprising. But this might be:

I believe that the single most important component of making a great MP game stick, is the single player (SP) campaign. Hear me out. Many people play the SP campaign in order to get a feel for the game, so it’s really their first impression. And if none of your friends on your FL have the game, well, then the MP is just not as fun. But, the single player campaign is the only part of the package that is completely controlled by the developers. If you make it memorable, make it intriguing, make it heart stopping and you make it worth talking about. If you tell everyone on your FL how amazing the campaign is, or if everyone notices that you spent 3 days playing the new game instead of your old game, they may get curious. Think back to the last big thing that you played? How much of the early discussion was about the campaign, the achievements, the design? Quite a bit, really, especially considering the campaign is the blink of an eye when you compare it to the amount of time you spend playing MP.

We have piqued the interest of your friends with the new game, but we have also done something else. The SP campaign has taken the gamer out of the old game. People notice that too. The old game may not have that fun vibe anymore. The type of people who are going out on a limb and rush to tell people about the newest bestest game, are also the type of people who rushed out and got them hooked on the last newest bestest game. And that is the type of person that people miss seeing in their lobby. Lose that person, you lose part of the fun.

So, in the end what do we have? Because the SP campaign was so great, within the first 3-4 days of launch, the next big thing has caught the attention of your friends, the king of the hill has lost a few of it’s major advocates. And maybe that’s enough to get the scales to tip.

Bottom Line: To all the developers to read my every blog with baited breath. Spending more time on a great SP campaign is a great way to help your MP game really take off.